ISSN 2312-5837 (Online), ISSN 2077-8031 (Print) Semi-annual The original articles and reviews, materials of problem and discussion kind, summaries about scientific symposiums, conferences and forums on Economic Cybernetics, bibliographic reviews, critic on monographs and articles, information about latest scientific achievement in the field of Economic Cybernetics are published in the Journal. Subjects of articles: theoretical and methodological problems of economic cybernetics; modeling in micro- and macroeconomic systems; decision-making; models and methods of economic dynamics, stability and equilibrium; methods of the Operation Research and the System Theory; adaptive systems in economics; models of Management and Marketing; educational problems in the field of Economic Cybernetics; econometrics (methods of statistical analysis and forecasting); computer systems and informational technology in economics. Included: DOAJ, EBSCO, CiteFactor, Ulrich's, SHEPRA/Romeo, Worldcat and so on. Indicies: ICDS 2015 = 4.176 (New!) IBIF 2015 = 3.11; GIF 2014=0.489; ICV 2013 = 6.64; GIF 2013=0.399; SISIF 2013 = 0.849; SJIF 2013 = 3.798; UIF 2013 = 0.2083; IF OAJI 2012=0.524; ICV 2012 = 6.04; GIF 2012=0.362; SJIF 2012 = 2.851
All rights reserved for authors with articles of printed version of ISJ "Economic Cybernetics" (ISSN 2077-8031). Copyrights of published works are retained by the author(s) but with first publication rights granted to Donetsk National University. Further, in case of any plagiarism issue author(s) hold(s) complete liability. Online version of ISJ "Economic Cybernetics" (ISSN 2312-5837) is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at http://ec.projects-manager.com.
Modeling of factoring operations to increase payments of enterprises
The article analyzed the actual problem of modeling the borrower's operations in the process of executing the loan agreement to support the necessary indicators of its solvency. A model was proposed that allows adjusting the latter to the optimal value by means of a solution in the field of factoring operations and models of the influence of the factoring operation on forecast indicators. These models (as in factoring, accounting and bills, and in combination with other methods) can be used by the enterprise as a whole to analyze the financial condition of the company, as well as to optimize the financial state for the reporting period in the required areas.
Computer systems and informational technology in economics
Copyright (c) 2014 Evgeniya Shevchenko, Petr Leonov
In the article problem of integrated company’s transfer pricing modeling is set, as well as practical recommendations for implementation of results into management system of integrated structure. Models for company’s integrated transfer pricing system, as well as business control system model are developed, allowing improving of vertically integrated company’s competitive qualities. Pricing Models for firm’s activities, systems diversification for integrated company are developed, allowing improvement of financial results. Pricing model for cooperation allow to improve integrated company’s overall efficiency. In the article structure for mechanism are developed allowing in-time reaction to changes in external environment and guaranteeing rational decision-making.
Copyright (c) 2014 Gennadiy Vladimirovich Turovtsev, Denis Pavlovich Mikhaylik
The relation between Value-at-Risk minimization and the return level of financial assets portfolio
Purpose and subject of research The paper investigates the problem of optimal portfolio selection based on Value-at-Risk minimization with the preselected level of expected return by using the principle of unconditional (concerning expected return) Value-at-Risk minimization. Research methodology We show that the optimal portfolio with the minimum level of Value-at-Risk and preselected level of expected return is efficient by Markowitz. We derive the confidence level for the Value-at-Risk under which the expected return of optimal portfolio with the minimum level of Value-at-Risk is equal to the preselected level of expected return. Value results Using historical monthly data of seven assets from Dow Jones Index it is analyzed the relationship between expected return level and confidence level and it is shown that the sample estimator of this confidence level is very accurate even for a small sample size (n=60). Conclusions Finally, we prove that the problem of Value-at-Risk minimization with the preselected level of expected return in practice can be replaced by more universal one of unconditional (concerning expected return) Value-at-Risk minimization.
Copyright (c) 2014 Taras Zabolotskyy, Orest Bilyy
The concept оf modelling of complex economic systems integration
In the article an actual scientific and practical problem of complex economic systems integration modelling was settled and solved, in which a complex economic and mathematical models of the creation process’ of integrative structures of various shapes, which enhances the efficiency of decision- making and functioning of the integrated system. In the article is proposed the concept of modelling the integration processes of complex economic systems, which can reduce the risk of inefficient management decisions and maximize profits by improving the consistency of information on parameters of the system. The thesis present a model system characteristics of integrated complex economic systems, the project model of organization and effectiveness of the integrated structure and dynamics model of system integration process, allowing mostly evaluate the impact of certain factors on the system behaviour and predict future values of key factors. Keywords: integration; complex economic systems; economic and mathematical modelling; project management
Copyright (c) 2014 Stanislav Levitskiy, Elena Vdovichenko, Igor Frunze
Towards the 50th Anniversary of Economic Cybernetics at Donetsk National University
На сегодня главная задача в экономической кибернетике – это определение направлений наиболее перспективных, актуальных исследований, разработка комплексных проблем, в которых экономическая кибернетика, взаимодействуя с другими разделами науки и техники и, в первую очередь, с экономическими, обеспечит эффективное функционирование как экономики страны в целом, так и составляющих ее экономических объектов. И отсюда вытекает задача координации исследований, необходимость обеспечения тесного взаимодействия специалистов различных профилей, занятых решением задач, которые стоят перед экономической кибернетикой. Немассовый характер подготовки экономистов-кибернетиков позволяет в высокой степени индивидуализировать обучение, а гибкость учебных планов подготовки способствует развитию уникальных компетенций, таких как риск-менеджмент организационное проектирование, менеджмент проектов, в том числе проектов информатизации, постановщиком задач по внедрению информационных систем, принятие решений и применение количественных методов для решения экономических задач, системная аналитика в экономике. Таким образом, экономисты по направлению «Экономическая кибернетика», имеющие высокую квалификацию в сфере организационного управления и экономики, которые владеют современными математическими методами анализа и прогнозирования экономических ситуаций, с использованием новейших информационных технологий, умеющие организовать работу по компьютеризации экономических объектов, являются инновационными специалистами современности в области экономики и управления производственно-экономическими системами, а немассовый характер подготовки специалистов, повышенные требования к математической и технической подготовке абитуриентов, ориентация на развитие уникальных навыков и знаний через применение индивидуальных подходов к обучению и развитию личности студентов обеспечивают креативный организационный подход к развитию этой экономической специальности в Донецком регионе, и в Украине в целом.
Educational problems in the field of Economic Cybernetics
The estimation of results of enterprise activity aimed at creation of its future capabilities: indexes and models
Research Purpose In every moment of the present any enterprise builds its future. Therefore the results of current performance of an enterprise must be estimated in the context of creating its capabilities to run a successful business in the future. The aims of this research are: 1) to develop a system of criteria of estimating enterprise activity aimed at creating its future capabilities; 2) for the mathematical providing of calculation of the proposed system of criteria to develop an enterprise potential estimation model taking into account optimizing and dynamic essence of the potential. Research Мethodology Estimation of results of enterprise activity related to creation of its future capabilities is realized according to the approach based on the concept of “enterprise potential”. Estimation of enterprise potential is proposed to describe as a set of the best results, which the enterprise can achieve in the prognosticated period in view of environment conditions variants. The model of estimation of enterprise potential is build as a constrained optimization task with the criterion of future profits which describes the addition of economic capital of enterprise. Research results In the article three interrelated criteria of estimation of processes of creating enterprise future capabilities are offered: index of enterprise potential; index of dynamics of enterprise potential; index of dynamics of implementation of enterprise potential. With the purpose of forming the mathematical providing of calculation of the offered indexes, the optimization model of result estimation of enterprise potential was developed. The designed model includes: global objective function describing the sum of profits of enterprise for the whole prognosis period depending on parameters that determine enterprise activity on the set of elementary periods; local objective functions of profits optimization within the each elementary period with the controlled vector of output; system of constraints that are determined by characteristics of enterprise resources; system of expressions which describes dynamics of resources. Expressions of the model are shown on the example of estimating tactical potential of an enterprise. Implications The proposed system of criteria and the model of estimation of enterprise potential develop analytical support of management of enterprises. The findings are meant for using in enterprise management automated systems. Keywords: future capabilities of enterprise; enterprise potential; optimization model of estimation of enterprise potential; enterprise management.
optimization model of estimation of enterprise potential
The aspect of financial security in the intellectual capital management
Purpose and subject of research The article is dedicated to justification of the expediency of intellectual capital using as a tool for ensuring the financial security of an enterprise. Research methodology The analysis of contemporary problems of mining and metallurgical complex has been accomplished, that determines the specificity of the management in a metallurgical plant. Value results Intellectual capital is essential to the financial security of metallurgical enterprises. The nature of contemporary problems of mining and metallurgical complex causes specifics tasks in the management of the intellectual capital of a metallurgical plant, the solution of which can be achieved through the development and implementation of models of intellectual capital management. Conclusions The structural scheme of the system of intellectual capital management of metallurgical enterprise as a part of a vertically integrated structure has been proposed. Key words: financial security, mining and metallurgical complex, intellectual capital management system of metallurgical enterprise
intellectual capital management system of metallurgical enterprise
Copyright (c) 2014 Tatiana Shatalova, Vladimir Timokhin, Valeriya Serbina
An integrated approach to ukrainian energy system development modelling
This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy systems’ modelling investigation. It is proved that adequate consideration of the economy-wide effects through single class of models is not always conceivable, since such approaches exceptionally focus either on technological or macroeconomic visions of the energy sector. Accordingly, this paper justifies the expediency of integrated modelling tools application for the analysis of energy policy measures in Ukraine, furthermore theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy system models and economic models linkage are studied. Based on the authors’ energy system model “TIMES-Ukraine” and recursive dynamic general equilibrium model this paper presents an integrated modelling tool that can serve as an effective methodological support in solving a number of strategic planning problems in the energy sector, including: investigation of the energy balance optimization options in order to ensure environment conservation and Ukraine’s low carbon economic development, considering cross-sectoral linkages’ structure, energy efficiency and energy conservation measures implementation, renewable energy development, ecological standards compliance, etc. investigation of the FEC development scenarios influence on the wide range of micro- and macroeconomic indicators, including households’ income and expenditure, GDP, industrial output, public finance, foreign economic activity, etc. optimization of public mechanisms designed to meet international commitments to protect the environment and combat climate change, taking into account their impact on producers, end-users, general government and dynamics of macroeconomic indicators; energy sector subsidization policy adjustment, aimed at the transition to market prices in a socially acceptable manner, while ensuring the viability of energy companies.
Methods of the Operation Research and the System Theory
Copyright (c) 2014 Oleksandr Diachuk, Roman Podolets, Maksim Chepeliev
Modeling perspective planning city budget (Donetsk case study)
Perspective planning the city's budget, its revenue and expenditure parts, is one of the important activities of local authorities that are stated in the Budget Code of Ukraine. High-quality execution of this important function requires using modern scientific and analytical tools, the use of which will improve the quality of management of the socio-economic development of the city. This article proposes an improved information- analytical complex for long-term planning of the city budget, intended for scientific and informational support for decision-making. It consists of models for medium-term forecasting of Donetsk city budget revenues. This complex is a research tool that allows analyzing the socio-economic development of the city as well as its budget in retrospect, estimating planned tax revenues of the city in the medium term (next 3 years ) with a high degree of accuracy and adequacy to the actual real socio- economic processes. According to the forecasts of medium-term planning it was found that provided that in 2014-2016 Ukraine's GDP growth equals 2% annually and the real rate of price growth (GDP deflator) is 9% annually, tax revenues will grow from UAH 2.178 mln in 2012 to UAH 2.465 mln in 2016. This change will occur mainly due to the expected growth in personal income tax in the city budget from UAH 1.468 mln in 2012 to UAH 1.738 mln in 2016. Actualization of the complex allows getting updated forecasts of economic development and city budget revenues for the next three fiscal periods. The resulting forecast can be used for scientific substantiation of administrative decisions of city authorities and improving the quality of budget planning and forecasting.
Modeling in micro- and macroeconomic systems
Copyright (c) 2014 Aleksey Okhten, Artem Madykh, Juliia Mazur
Intellectual capital in economic growth models
The new conception for constructing economic growth models is proposed in the article. Three main factors are taking into account: physical capital, labor, and intellectual capital (knowledge). In this case, intellectual capital is represented in three dimensions: technological intellectual capital, human intellectual capital, and relational intellectual capital. In each dimension intellectual capital is considered as specific endogenous technological progress, which is described by the differential equation.
Models and methods of economic dynamics, stability and equilibrium
модель оптимального економічного зростання
Copyright (c) 2014 Igor Lyashenko, Yuriy Tadeev
Uncertainty and inequality: a relationship between entropy and income distribution in society
The paper is aimed to discussing features of a relationship between income inequality and entropy. The analyses is based on the theoretical thesis that income inequality is a factor of uncertainty and instability in society, chaotic behaviour of social-economic system, and it is accompanied with entropy increase. Theil index and Gini coefficient are used as income inequality measures in the analyses,Shannonentropy is chosen as entropy measure. The relationship between income inequality measures and entropy measures, including entropy based on income distribution and entropy based on people distribution are discussed. It is noted that changes of entropy and Gini coefficient can have unlike signs: entropy can increase with both inequality increase and inequality decrease. Entropy maximum takes place for Lorenz curve with Gini coefficient 1/3, a deviation from it leads to entropy decrease. This is illustrated by power-series distribution. The analyses give arguments to conclude the following. If majority of population is located in low-income clusters, inequality increasing can lead to decreasing of uncertainty and rising of controllability of social-economic system. If a government starts an implementing a politic aimed to inequality decreasing, in the beginning it will meet uncertainty and chaos rising. It can be suggested that nonlinear change of entropy accompanying changes in income distribution is a factor which slows dawn a further progress in this direction and blocks economic reforms in developing countries. Key words: entropy, income distribution, Theil index, Gini coefficient
Theoretical and methodological problems of economic cybernetics
Copyright (c) 2014 Tamara Merkulova, Artem Yantsevich
Model in managing the implementation of ERP systems
Purpose and subject of research The aim of the study is to find methods for effective management of ERP- systems. Research methodology The theoretical framework is based on the methods of system analysis to the business management of the financial sector, innovative models of financial management, modern methods of economic cybernetics. Value results The complication and the increasing cost of complex systems of operational business management (ERP-systems) cause deepening of problems of evaluating their effectiveness. We need mechanisms that allow manage the selection, implementation and use of such systems. As a result, the model in managing the implementation of integrated enterprise management systems was built. Conclusions The complication and the increasing cost of complex systems of operational business management (ERP-systems) cause deepening of problems of evaluating their effectiveness. We need mechanisms that allow manage the selection, implementation and use of such systems. As a result, the model in managing the implementation of integrated enterprise management systems was built. The model allows to evaluate the impact of management factors such as top management support , quality of communication , the degree of awareness among staff and others on the speed of implementation of automated functions. A system dynamic approach allows account of the positive feedbacks that occur in the system in the implementation of information management systems. Simulation experiments with the model help to formalize and present in quantitative form some qualitative performance of ERP- systems. Key words: ERP-system implementation management, system dynamics
Copyright (c) 2014 Natalia Poluektova, Dmytro Alekseevsky
Strategical indicators for financial resources of industrial enterprises: tools of prediction
Purpose and subject of research This article describes the features of strategy management of an industrial enterprise financial resources, the conditions for increasing its efficiency and proposed economic- mathematical model of the mechanism of forecasting indicators strategic financial management of an industrial enterprise, which improves the efficiency of operation of the business through improved management of financial resources , to improve the accuracy and timeliness of management decisions based on a scenario assess the economic impact of the use of different measures for financial management of an industrial enterprise. Research methodology The theoretical framework is based on the methods of system analysis to the business management of the financial sector, innovative models of financial management, modern methods of economic cybernetics. Value results The main of this model are five scenarios for allocating financial resources of the industrial enterprises in the respective activity. Conclusions According to the results of simulation experiments, we can conclude that the application of the economic-mathematical model to minimize the cost of financial resources and the value of their involvement. Addressing financial management is the foundation of efficiency, competitiveness and financial sustainability of the Ukrainian industrial enterprises. Key words: industrial enterprises, financial resources, strategies indicators, mechanism of prediction.
Copyright (c) 2014 Vera Serdyuk, Marina Zorina
The modern approaches to managing development of the enterprise in the field of non-bank financial services
Purpose and subject of research Synthesis of the modern approaches to the management of development and also justification of tool set implementation strategy to increase the effectiveness of the management of the enterprise in the non-banking financial services. Research methodology The theoretical framework is based on the methods of system analysis to the business management of the financial sector, innovative models of financial management, modern methods of economic cybernetics. Value results The proposed theoretical approach is used to improve the system of development of the enterprise in the non-banking financial services through the introduction of complex administrative innovations. Conclusions The result of the study is the author's model of implementation of managerial innovations to stimulate the development of the enterprise sphere of non-bank financial services. The proposed integrated approach combines the tools of investment management, economy and mathematical methods, modern market theory and microeconomic analysis to a single organizational and economic model. The proposed approach enhance the competitiveness and sustainability of the enterprise in the field of non-banking financial services. Key words: development management, management of innovation, the filed of non-bank financial services, enterprise management, financial management.
the filed of non-bank financial services
Copyright (c) 2014 Dmitry Zherlitsyn, Vladimir Berlin
Problem of identification of parameters of the model of management of innovation processes in reprocessing agricultural enterprises
Purpose and subject of research The main approaches in the identification of parameters of economic and mathematical models are considered, the problem of a posteriori identification of the dynamical model parameters of innovative process management of reprocessing agricultural enterprises is researched. Research methodology Solutions for a posteriori identification of parameters of the dynamic model of innovative process management of reprocessing agricultural enterprises propose an algorithm that reduces to the implementation of solutions of systems of linear algebraic equations, the formation of the linear regression equation and use the method of least squares. Value results An algorithm for solving the problem of a posteriori identification of parameters of the dynamic model of innovative process management of reprocessing agricultural enterprises proposed algorithm makes it possible to develop efficient numerical procedures to implement a computer simulation of the dynamics of the system of innovative process management of agricultural enterprises. Conclusions Results presented in this paper can be used for economic-mathematical modeling and solving optimization processes of forecasting and data management in a lack of information and the availability of risk, as well as for the development of appropriate software and hardware systems to support effective management decisions in practice. Key words: posteriori identification, innovation process in agriculture, economic and mathematical modeling, discrete dynamical system, the risks of agricultural production.
The method of constructing functions rationing term-sets for displaying function of belonging
Purpose and subject of research Development of the construction method of function rationing variables therm-sets, representing their reflection on the interval [0;1] for modeling of operational risk based on fuzzy sets. This will eliminate the impact of different dimensions of the input variables corresponding to various factors, operational risk, and display the membership functions of the input variables in common co-ordinates. Research methodology The theoretical basis are the approaches of the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic. The proposed method allows to establish the dependence of the values of operational risk, regardless of the values of the input variable metrics. Value results An analysis of the work of scientists associated with the development of methods and models of risk assessment in the process of bank activity has been given. The method of constructing the functions of regulation to eliminate the impact of different dimensions of input variables has been suggested, which has allowed to display the membership functions of the input variables in common co-ordinates. Prospects for further research consist in building an operational risk warning system based on the algorithms of fuzzy inference and descriptions of possible situations of its occurrence. Conclusions The scientific novelty of this work consists in the development of the method of the construction of the functions of regulation to eliminate the impact of different dimensions of input variables, which allows to display the membership functions of the input variables in common co-ordinates. Key words: operational risk, fuzzy sets, function of belonging.
Copyright (c) 2014 Anna Bakurova, Vladimir Ivanov
Modeling multivariate nonstationary time series of economic dynamics based on Fokker-Planck equation
Purpose and subject of research The actual problem of modeling of the multivariate nonstationary time series of economic dynamics is being researched for the purpose of analysis, forecasting and decision-making in financial markets. Research methodology The proposed approach to the modeling of time series is based on the methodology of multivariate analysis and continuity equation, which relates the probability density function of the state variables of the system with their speeds. Value results Equation of motion of a point in a multidimensional phase space of state variables derived under the assumption that the evolution of the economic system based on the interaction of two factors - the growth and dissipation. It is assumed that the growth rate has a deterministic function, which means that there is a causal link between variables, and the diffusion component of the velocity is proportional to the gradient of the state probabilities in a local point of phase space. In this case the state of the system is determined by multivariate Fokker-Planck equation. On the basis of two-dimensional Fokker-Planck equations is constructed model of the real economic process - trading on the stock exchange. The structure of the model equations of nonlinear responsible paradigm of financial markets and agreed with the results of empirical research. We derive differential equations for the evolution of one-dimensional distributions of prices, trading volume, and spread their moments that are needed to complete the system for the unknown probability density functions. Conclusions The evolution equations are based on sample data and agreed with the two-dimensional Fokker- Planck equation. Modeling the dynamics and forecasting of trades carried out by numerical integration of the equations of evolution in a sliding window of the sample. The proposed approach to modeling allows the best use of the information contained in the multivariate time series and to obtain high prediction accuracy. Verification of the model performed on the rows indices trading on the Ukrainian stock market. Key words: multivariate time series, Fokker-Planck equation, forecasting, stock exchange.
Copyright (c) 2014 Oleksandr Isaenko, Vyacheslav Glushchevsky, Oleksandr Isaenko
Modelling of a flexible manufacturing system with changeover between two production cycle
Purpose and subject of research In this paper we consider a model of a flexible manufacturing system based on the theory of queues, which itself is flexible manufacturing system is represented as a single-channel queuing system with changeover and loss requirements. It is assumed that the system input Poisson flow intensity of orders per unit time. Research methodology The proposed approach to the modeling of time series is based on the methodology of multivariate analysis and continuity equation, which relates the probability density function of the state variables of the system with their speeds. Value results Order processing takes place in the order of their receipt, the order processing time has exponential distribution law with parameter . The device has a feature consisting in the fact that after the processing of all orders that are in the system, it goes into an idle state and to move it into working condition necessary readjustment, which begins in a random time having an exponential distribution with parameter , and the duration of its also has exponential distribution law, but with a parameter . Requirements entering the system, as the waiting time for the changeover and the changeover time for the lost. Note that the delay in the onset of readjustment due to the fact that the company needs to put new equipment or tooling for the continuation of the process. In this case, you can save money because the repair team, performs work on installing new equipment, can be outsourced. Conclusions For the described characteristics of the system are found, which are used to find the basic operating parameters of the system, namely, the probability of finding equipment changeovers, likelihood of a denial of service and the average queue length. Key words: queuing system, the stationary probabilities of the states of the system, the average queue length, readjustment, loss of orders, delays in the impatient customers.
the stationary probabilities of the states of the system
Approximate analytical solution of the inflation kinetic model
Purpose and subject of research The aim of the article is to highlight the mathematical formalization basic principles of the approximate inflation kinetic models solutions, the exact solutions of which are obtained only by numerical integration. Research methodology The basis in achieving this goal is the detailed analysis of the numerical solutions integral curves, which allowed to identify and formulate changes in the behavior of numerical solution, and caused the changes in the model parameters values. Value results An approach described in the article expands the range of possibilities in the modeling of inflation processes, namely: the prediction of their quantitative level for particular conditions; the creation of alternative development scenarios; the definition of anti-inflation measures necessary to achieve the optimal rate of inflation for the economy. Approximate solutions in the analytical form based on exponential functions are offered. The estimation error of the abovementioned solutions is implemented. The formulas of the peak significance computation of the inflationary surge, which took place in the result of money supply increase, are obtained. Conclusions The approximate analytical solutions of the model are made, that facilitates the transition to the next quality level of the inflation processes development within the inflation kinetic model. Key words: kinetic models, modeling of inflation processes, money supply increase, approximate analytical solution.
Copyright (c) 2014 Valdemar Vitlinskyy, Yuriy Kolyada, Serhiy Perten
Modeling of production and logistics systems with non-identical hardware setup
Purpose and subject of research We consider the problems of function modeling production and logistics systems with unreliable equipment and non-identical readjustment before servicing the next batch of orders, based on queuing theory models. To solve this problem we present the flexible manufacturing system in the form of a single-channel queuing system, where the input Poisson flow intensity of orders per unit time. Research methodology The study used formal mathematical methods, the method of economic and mathematical modeling, queuing theory, analytical methods of research. Value results Order processing takes place in the order of their receipt, the order processing time has exponential distribution law with parameter . The device has a feature consisting in the fact that after the processing of all orders that are in the system, it goes into an idle state and to move it into working condition necessary readjustment, which begins after the date of the request to a free system. Duration changeover has an exponential distribution with parameter . In addition, it is assumed that the equipment in the process of its operation may fail and recover. In the event of equipment failure, it is repaired (recovery) work. Maintenance of equipment (recovery, prevention and readjustment) carries a team of workers. Conclusions We assume that the device can fail at any time, as during maintenance applications (running), the application is under maintenance at the time of failure of the device is lost. Orders that are in the system at the time of equipment failure (if any), are served after the repair. After the restoration is necessary to readjust the equipment, the duration of which is different from the duration, which began after the receipt of the request to a free system (from the initial changeover). For the described characteristics of the system are found, which are used to find the basic operating parameters of the system used to construct economical criteria. Key words: queuing system, the stationary probability, reliability, prevention, rehabilitation and readjustment of equipment.
rehabilitation and readjustment of equipment
The distribution of the characteristics of the maximum expected utility portfolio based on VaR: the impact of investor’s risk aversion coefficient
Purpose and subject of research This study investigates the problem of rational choice of portfolio structure using the expected utility based on Value-at-Risk. Research methodology The study used formal mathematical methods, the method of economic and mathematical modeling, methods of portfolio construction, analytical methods of research. Value results We discuss the correctness of sample estimator of rational structure weights. Specifically, we define densities of the sample estimators for main portfolio characteristics and elaborate how the densities depend on investors' risk aversion coefficient. Our empirical tests allow us to give some recommendations about the rational choice of the coefficient based on the data from PFTS Ukrainian stock exchange market. It is shown that the high values (larger than 4) of this coefficient should be avoided as well as the low values (in the neighborhood of one). Conclusions The paper examines properties of portfolio characteristics with maximum expected utility based on Value-at-Risk. The use of this risk measure in portfolio theory is fully consistent with recommendations of the main banking documents. From the theoretical point of view application of expected utility function for portfolio constructing is a generalization of the portfolio constructing problem with minimum risk and given level of portfolio return. Key words: portfolio construction, Value-at-Risk, rational structure weights, portfolio characteristics
Copyright (c) 2014 Taras Zabolotskyy, Valdemar Vitlinskyy
Virtual Enterprise’ risk of cyberattack evaluation
Purpose and subject of research The purpose of this paper is the identification and evaluation of the specific risks of virtual enterprises. Research methodology To get the result riskology is used as a methodology of analysis, evaluation and management of risks in the economy, the theory of information economics in the definition of the role and place of virtual enterprise in the economic system, the methodology of risk-information service to estimate the level of risk cyberattacks. Value results The article deals with the operation of virtual enterprises in the information economy. Key findings relate to issues of risk classification of virtual enterprise, taking into account the nature of the infrastructure of the enterprise environment, justify the use of tools of virtual enterprise risk modeling and analysis of the results of the estimation of risk cyberattacks. Conclusions As a result of the study was to obtain a classification of specific risks and risk estimation method cyberattacks. The results can be used to control a virtual company, such as an online store. Key words: virtual enterprise, risk of cyberattack, methodology of analysis, risk-information service.
Copyright (c) 2014 Oleg Koroljov, Stanislav Malkov
The methodological approach to forecast modeling of financial markets price dynamics in view of the system complexity
Purpose and subject of research The aim of this paper is to identify the essential system characteristics of financial market and methodological development of algorithm, which is used for behavior of market price’s forecast modeling. Research methodology A theoretical framework is proposed investigation of the financial market’s essential characteristics as a complex socio-economic system. Subsequently, described system attributes, which can be measured quantitatively, it is proposed to use for the analysis and prediction of the price’s behavior in the financial market. It is proposed algorithm for researching of financial markets as complex systems that use the system complexity’s attributes. Value results The present study provides a starting-point for further research of complexity’s attributes in the financial markets. Conclusions The proposed algorithm not only makes the process of financial market research correctly, but can be used for other socio-economic systems after some adaptation. Key words: forecast modeling, financial markets, price dynamics, system complexity.
Econometrics (methods of statistical analysis and forecasting)
The model of innovative strategy for the insurance company investment activity
Purpose and subject of research The specifics of investing activity of insurance companies inUkraineare investigated. The innovative model of strategic management for insurance company investing activity is proposed. Research methodology A theoretical framework is based on methods of system analysis in management of the insurance company development, innovative control methods in enterprise financial management, modern methods of economic cybernetics. Value results The proposed theoretical approach is used to improve the management system of financial services enterprise through the introduction of innovative methods of financial investments control. The present study provides a starting-point for further research and development of practical skills of innovative control methods for the insurance company. Conclusions The result of the study is the author's model of the innovation strategy for the insurance company investment activity. The model considers the investment risk, modern trends in the financial markets and the insurance market inUkraine. The proposed approach allows increasing the efficiency and competitiveness of the insurance company activity. Key words: innovative strategy, company investment activity, model of the innovation strategy, investment risk, modern trends.
Copyright (c) 2014 Dmitry Zherlitsyn, Vladimir Lev
Modeling methodical aspects of enterprise's competitiveness for unstable economic environment
Purpose and subject of research The purpose of research is to systematize the management methodology enterprise's competitiveness for unstable economic environment. Research methodology In the article expert analysis methods, optimization and simulation modelling were used for solving the problem. Value results Instability limits were identified and formalized in the research. The study is based on the new definition of enterprise's competitiveness, which is determined by the preferences degree of the enterprise. This approach is allowed to develop the comprehensive approach to competitiveness control, with using of economic- mathematical modelling. Conclusions Theoretical and methodological substantiation of using new enterprises’ management models and methods for unstable economic environment were proposed in the article. In this methodology is indicated an application of developed complex models for enterprises that operating in unstable economic environment. Keywords Enterprise's competitiveness, unstable economic environment, instability limits, economic-mathematical modelling.
Copyright (c) 2014 Vladimir Timokhin, Anastasia Zyma
Methodology aspects of innovating product promotion
Purpose and subject of research The purpose of research is the systematization of the methodological framework for the effective innovative product promotion to market in the shortest term with the greatest economic results. Research methodology Optimization and simulation modeling, system analysis are the methodological basis of the research. Value results In the research the problem areas of innovative enterprise operation were analysed and preconditions of innovative activity were determined. Economic and mathematical models complex, that allow to increase the efficiency of the innovating product promotion process, was developed and the relations between the proposed instruments was defined. Conclusions Methodological approaches of innovating product promotion management that were proposed in the article are the basis of innovative development strategic plan developing. It allows to increase the enterprise competitive position, to expand the market segment and to attract the investments. Key words: innovating product promotion, systematization of the methodological framework, effective innovative product, greatest economic results.
systematization of the methodological framework
Copyright (c) 2014 Yuriy Lysenko, Elena Elperina
Evaluation of the microeconomic system's stability
Purpose and subject of research The purpose of research is the development of methodical approach to determining the level of economic stability on the basis of industrial building system of integrated indicators. Research methodology A theoretical framework is based on methods of system analysis in management of the insurance company development, innovative control methods. Value results The paper examines the economic sustainability of the enterprise from the perspective of the functional stability characteristics (parameters), highlights various components of sustainability: financial, technological, organizational, commercial and social. It is proposed to evaluate the stability of the economic system using the stability of indexes and the balanced proportions of the enterprise developing. Conclusions The proposed assessment of the economic viability is viewed from the perspective of sustainability components. Within the range of the components, elements that characterize the use performance of their potential, should be provided. The methodical approach of constructing a system of integrated indicators for each of these types of resistance, makes it possible to carry out a comprehensive assessment of the industrial enterprise's economic viability, and identify an approaching to the bifurcation point. Key words: microeconomic system's, evaluation of stability, economic stability, industrial building system.
Choice approach to the valuation of the financial institution in М&A contracts using the analytic hierarchy process
Purpose and subject of research The purpose of research is rationale for the choice approach to valuation of financial institutions, the most appropriate in mergers and acquisitions. The object of study is the choice of approach to valuation of financial institutions in mergers and acquisitions. Research methodology The study used the methods of valuation of financial institutions that are legislated inUkraine, namely: cost, comparative and revenue. Value results The relevance of the topic chosen is usually in the works of scholars choice approach to valuation is based on logical reasoning without the use of specialized tools for decision making. According to the National Standard number 1 "General Principles of valuation of property and property rights" inUkrainelegislated mandatory application of the income, expenditure and comparative approaches to assessing the value of any object. Therefore, the question of choice reasoned approach to the valuation of financial institutions in mergers and acquisitions are opened. Conclusions The results of the study concluded that, if necessary, to take account of mergers and acquisitions investment value of the financial institution objectives as an integrated facility and its development potential is the most appropriate evaluation procedures focus on methods of income approach. Although he has a number of shortcomings of traditional methods of valuation, however, is the most appropriate contractual M & A, takes into account the valuation of financial institutions in mergers and acquisitions and can be the basis for further research in the area of valuation of financial institutions in mergers and acquisitions. Key words: financial institution, М&A contracts, analytic hierarchy process, mergers and acquisitions.
Copyright (c) 2014 Konstyantin Gritsenko, Natalia Yaremenko
Investigation the influence of exchange rate channel of transmission mechanism on the ukrainian economy real sector
Purpose and subject of research For the modern economic model the transformation of the tradition monetary transmission mechanism is relevant that demands in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of the monetary channels and the determination of the optimal structure of the transmission mechanism especially for the developing countries. The integrated assessment of the changes in the Ukrainian monetary transmission mechanism, in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of the separate channels and the investigation of the peculiarity of the impulses transmission by the exchange rate channel in short run and long run for Ukrainian economy is the main object of this study. Research methodology A theoretical and empirical framework is proposed based on the monetary theory, including the new features of the monetary transmission mechanism and the time series analysis with vector error correction models. Value results The statistical analysis, analysis of the impulse responsible functions and the variance decomposition on the base of the elaborated vector error correction model for the exchange rate channel had allowed to estimate its influence on the real sector of the Ukrainian economy in short run and long run and empirically improve the hypotheses about special feature of this channel for Ukraine. The present study provides a starting-point for further research in the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism channels for the developed and developing countries for the purpose of the determination of the effective directions of the monetary policy for the stimulation of the economic growth. Conclusions The framework has proven to be useful to show the specific and the dominant role of the exchange rate channel for the Ukrainian economy and non-significant function of the other channels for the Ukraine which demands not only of the improvement of the exchange rate policy but also the transformation of the structure of the Ukrainian monetary transmission mechanism. Key words: exchange rate channel, transmission mechanism, economy real sector, non-significant function.