Economic Cybernetics

Uncertainty and inequality: a relationship between entropy and income distribution in society

Tamara Merkulova — 2014-07-04

The paper is aimed to discussing features of a relationship between income inequality and entropy.

The analyses is based on the theoretical thesis that income inequality is a factor of uncertainty and instability in society, chaotic behaviour of social-economic system, and it is accompanied with entropy increase. Theil index and Gini coefficient are used as income inequality measures in the analyses,Shannonentropy is chosen as entropy measure.

The relationship between income inequality measures and entropy measures, including entropy based on income distribution and entropy based on people distribution are discussed. It is noted that changes of entropy and Gini coefficient can have unlike signs: entropy can increase with both inequality increase and inequality decrease. Entropy maximum takes place for Lorenz curve with Gini coefficient 1/3, a deviation from it leads to entropy decrease. This is illustrated by power-series distribution.

The analyses give arguments to conclude the following. If majority of population is located in low-income clusters, inequality increasing can lead to decreasing of uncertainty and rising of controllability of social-economic system. If a government starts an implementing a politic aimed to inequality decreasing, in the beginning it will meet uncertainty and chaos rising. It can be suggested that nonlinear change of entropy accompanying changes in income distribution is a factor which slows dawn a further progress in this direction and blocks economic reforms in developing countries.

Key words: entropy, income distribution, Theil index, Gini coefficient

Modeling perspective planning city budget (Donetsk case study)

Aleksey Okhten — 2014-07-04

Perspective planning the city's budget, its revenue and expenditure parts, is one of the important activities of local authorities that are stated in the Budget Code of Ukraine. High-quality execution of this important function requires using modern scientific and analytical tools, the use of which will improve the quality of management of the socio-economic development of the city.

This article proposes an improved information- analytical complex for long-term planning of the city budget, intended for scientific and informational support for decision-making. It consists of models for medium-term forecasting of Donetsk city budget revenues. This complex is a research tool that allows analyzing the socio-economic development of the city as well as its budget in retrospect, estimating planned tax revenues of the city in the medium term (next 3 years ) with a high degree of accuracy and adequacy to the actual real socio- economic processes.

According to the forecasts of medium-term planning it was found that provided that in 2014-2016 Ukraine's GDP growth equals 2% annually and the real rate of price growth (GDP deflator) is 9% annually, tax revenues will grow from UAH 2.178 mln in 2012 to UAH 2.465 mln in 2016. This change will occur mainly due to the expected growth in personal income tax in the city budget from UAH 1.468 mln in 2012 to UAH 1.738 mln in 2016.

Actualization of the complex allows getting updated forecasts of economic development and city budget revenues for the next three fiscal periods. The resulting forecast can be used for scientific substantiation of administrative decisions of city authorities and improving the quality of budget planning and forecasting.

The relation between Value-at-Risk minimization and the return level of financial assets portfolio

Taras Zabolotskyy — 2014-07-04

Purpose and subject of research

The paper investigates the problem of optimal portfolio selection based on Value-at-Risk minimization with the preselected level of expected return by using the principle of unconditional (concerning expected return) Value-at-Risk minimization.

Research methodology

We show that the optimal portfolio with the minimum level of Value-at-Risk and preselected level of expected return is efficient by Markowitz. We derive the confidence level for the Value-at-Risk under which the expected return of optimal portfolio with the minimum level of Value-at-Risk is equal to the preselected level of expected return.

Value results

Using historical monthly data of seven assets from Dow Jones Index it is analyzed the relationship between expected return level and confidence level and it is shown that the sample estimator of this confidence level is very accurate even for a small sample size (n=60).

Conclusions

Finally, we prove that the problem of Value-at-Risk minimization with the preselected level of expected return in practice can be replaced by more universal one of unconditional (concerning expected return) Value-at-Risk minimization.

Intellectual capital in economic growth models

Igor Lyashenko — 2014-07-04

The new conception for constructing economic growth models is proposed in the article. Three main factors are taking into account: physical capital, labor, and intellectual capital (knowledge). In this case, intellectual capital is represented in three dimensions: technological intellectual capital, human intellectual capital, and relational intellectual capital. In each dimension intellectual capital is considered as specific endogenous technological progress, which is described by the differential equation.

An integrated approach to ukrainian energy system development modelling

Oleksandr Diachuk — 2014-07-04

This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy systems’ modelling investigation. It is proved that adequate consideration of the economy-wide effects through single class of models is not always conceivable, since such approaches exceptionally focus either on technological or macroeconomic visions of the energy sector. Accordingly, this paper justifies the expediency of integrated modelling tools application for the analysis of energy policy measures in Ukraine, furthermore theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy system models and economic models linkage are studied. Based on the authors’ energy system model “TIMES-Ukraine” and recursive dynamic general equilibrium model this paper presents an integrated modelling tool that can serve as an effective methodological support in solving a number of strategic planning problems in the energy sector, including:

investigation of the energy balance optimization options in order to ensure environment conservation and Ukraine’s low carbon economic development, considering cross-sectoral linkages’ structure, energy efficiency and energy conservation measures implementation, renewable energy development, ecological standards compliance, etc.
investigation of the FEC development scenarios influence on the wide range of micro- and macroeconomic indicators, including households’ income and expenditure, GDP, industrial output, public finance, foreign economic activity, etc.
optimization of public mechanisms designed to meet international commitments to protect the environment and combat climate change, taking into account their impact on producers, end-users, general government and dynamics of macroeconomic indicators;
energy sector subsidization policy adjustment, aimed at the transition to market prices in a socially acceptable manner, while ensuring the viability of energy companies.

The aspect of financial security in the intellectual capital management

Tatiana Shatalova — 2014-07-04

Purpose and subject of research

The article is dedicated to justification of the expediency of intellectual capital using as a tool for ensuring the financial security of an enterprise.

Research methodology

The analysis of contemporary problems of mining and metallurgical complex has been accomplished, that determines the specificity of the management in a metallurgical plant.

Value results

Intellectual capital is essential to the financial security of metallurgical enterprises. The nature of contemporary problems of mining and metallurgical complex causes specifics tasks in the management of the intellectual capital of a metallurgical plant, the solution of which can be achieved through the development and implementation of models of intellectual capital management.

Conclusions

The structural scheme of the system of intellectual capital management of metallurgical enterprise as a part of a vertically integrated structure has been proposed.

Key words: financial security, mining and metallurgical complex, intellectual capital management system of metallurgical enterprise

The estimation of results of enterprise activity aimed at creation of its future capabilities: indexes and models

Lyudmila Potrashkova — 2014-07-04

Research Purpose
In every moment of the present any enterprise builds its future. Therefore the results of current performance of an enterprise must be estimated in the context of creating its capabilities to run a successful business in the future. The aims of this research are: 1) to develop a system of criteria of estimating enterprise activity aimed at creating its future capabilities; 2) for the mathematical providing of calculation of the proposed system of criteria to develop an enterprise potential estimation model taking into account optimizing and dynamic essence of the potential.
Research Мethodology
Estimation of results of enterprise activity related to creation of its future capabilities is realized according to the approach based on the concept of “enterprise potential”.
Estimation of enterprise potential is proposed to describe as a set of the best results, which the enterprise can achieve in the prognosticated period in view of environment conditions variants.
The model of estimation of enterprise potential is build as a constrained optimization task with the criterion of future profits which describes the addition of economic capital of enterprise.
Research results
In the article three interrelated criteria of estimation of processes of creating enterprise future capabilities are offered: index of enterprise potential; index of dynamics of enterprise potential; index of dynamics of implementation of enterprise potential.
With the purpose of forming the mathematical providing of calculation of the offered indexes, the optimization model of result estimation of enterprise potential was developed. The designed model includes: global objective function describing the sum of profits of enterprise for the whole prognosis period depending on parameters that determine enterprise activity on the set of elementary periods; local objective functions of profits optimization within the each elementary period with the controlled vector of output; system of constraints that are determined by characteristics of enterprise resources; system of expressions which describes dynamics of resources.
Expressions of the model are shown on the example of estimating tactical potential of an enterprise.
Implications
The proposed system of criteria and the model of estimation of enterprise potential develop analytical support of management of enterprises. The findings are meant for using in enterprise management automated systems.

Keywords: future capabilities of enterprise; enterprise potential; optimization model of estimation of enterprise potential; enterprise management.

The concept оf modelling of complex economic systems integration

Stanislav Levitskiy — 2014-07-04

In the article an actual scientific and practical problem of complex economic systems integration modelling was settled and solved, in which a complex economic and mathematical models of the creation process’ of integrative structures of various shapes, which enhances the efficiency of decision- making and functioning of the integrated system.

In the article is proposed the concept of modelling the integration processes of complex economic systems, which can reduce the risk of inefficient management decisions and maximize profits by improving the consistency of information on parameters of the system. The thesis present a model system characteristics of integrated complex economic systems, the project model of organization and effectiveness of the integrated structure and dynamics model of system integration process, allowing mostly evaluate the impact of certain factors on the system behaviour and predict future values of key factors.

Keywords: integration; complex economic systems; economic and mathematical modelling; project management

Towards the 50th Anniversary of Economic Cybernetics at Donetsk National University

Yuriy Lysenko — 2014-07-04

На сегодня главная задача в экономической кибернетике – это определение направлений наиболее перспективных, актуальных исследований, разработка комплексных проблем, в которых экономическая кибернетика, взаимодействуя с другими разделами науки и техники и, в первую очередь, с экономическими, обеспечит эффективное функционирование как экономики страны в целом, так и составляющих ее экономических объектов. И отсюда вытекает задача координации исследований, необходимость обеспечения тесного взаимодействия специалистов различных профилей, занятых решением задач, которые стоят перед экономической кибернетикой.

Немассовый характер подготовки экономистов-кибернетиков позволяет в высокой степени индивидуализировать обучение, а гибкость учебных планов подготовки способствует развитию уникальных компетенций, таких как риск-менеджмент организационное проектирование, менеджмент проектов, в том числе проектов информатизации, постановщиком задач по внедрению информационных систем, принятие решений и применение количественных методов для решения экономических задач, системная аналитика в экономике.

Таким образом, экономисты по направлению «Экономическая кибернетика», имеющие высокую квалификацию в сфере организационного управления и экономики, которые владеют современными математическими методами анализа и прогнозирования экономических ситуаций, с использованием новейших информационных технологий, умеющие организовать работу по компьютеризации экономических объектов, являются инновационными специалистами современности в области экономики и управления производственно-экономическими системами, а немассовый характер подготовки специалистов, повышенные требования к математической и технической подготовке абитуриентов, ориентация на развитие уникальных навыков и знаний через применение индивидуальных подходов к обучению и развитию личности студентов обеспечивают креативный организационный подход к развитию этой экономической специальности в Донецком регионе, и в Украине в целом.

Modeling of transfer pricing mechanism

Gennadiy Turovtsev — 2014-05-30

In the article problem of integrated company’s transfer pricing modeling is set, as well as practical recommendations for implementation of results into management system of integrated structure.

Models for company’s integrated transfer pricing system, as well as business control system model are developed, allowing improving of vertically integrated company’s competitive qualities. Pricing Models for firm’s activities, systems diversification for integrated company are developed, allowing improvement of financial results. Pricing model for cooperation allow to improve integrated company’s overall efficiency. In the article structure for mechanism are developed allowing in-time reaction to changes in external environment and guaranteeing rational decision-making.

Modeling of factoring operations to increase payments of enterprises

Evgeniya Shevchenko — 2014-05-07

The article analyzed the actual problem of modeling the borrower's operations in the process of executing the loan agreement to support the necessary indicators of its solvency. A model was proposed that allows adjusting the latter to the optimal value by means of a solution in the field of factoring operations and models of the influence of the factoring operation on forecast indicators. These models (as in factoring, accounting and bills, and in combination with other methods) can be used by the enterprise as a whole to analyze the financial condition of the company, as well as to optimize the financial state for the reporting period in the required areas.