An integrated approach to ukrainian energy system development modelling
This article presents the results of the contemporary theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy systems’ modelling investigation. It is proved that adequate consideration of the economy-wide effects through single class of models is not always conceivable, since such approaches exceptionally focus either on technological or macroeconomic visions of the energy sector. Accordingly, this paper justifies the expediency of integrated modelling tools application for the analysis of energy policy measures in Ukraine, furthermore theoretical and methodological approaches to the energy system models and economic models linkage are studied. Based on the authors’ energy system model “TIMES-Ukraine” and recursive dynamic general equilibrium model this paper presents an integrated modelling tool that can serve as an effective methodological support in solving a number of strategic planning problems in the energy sector, including:
- investigation of the energy balance optimization options in order to ensure environment conservation and Ukraine’s low carbon economic development, considering cross-sectoral linkages’ structure, energy efficiency and energy conservation measures implementation, renewable energy development, ecological standards compliance, etc.
- investigation of the FEC development scenarios influence on the wide range of micro- and macroeconomic indicators, including households’ income and expenditure, GDP, industrial output, public finance, foreign economic activity, etc.
- optimization of public mechanisms designed to meet international commitments to protect the environment and combat climate change, taking into account their impact on producers, end-users, general government and dynamics of macroeconomic indicators;
- energy sector subsidization policy adjustment, aimed at the transition to market prices in a socially acceptable manner, while ensuring the viability of energy companies.
Full Text:PDF (Українська)
State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Consumer price indices in 2012 (2013). Kiev: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
State Statistics Service of Ukraine. National Accounts of Ukraine for 2011 (2013). Kiev: State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2013) Commodity structure of foreign trade in 2012 [Online] State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Available from: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua (accessed: 12/2/2014)
State Environmental Investment Agency of Ukraine (2013) National Inventory Report of Anthropogenic Emissions by Sources and Removals by Sinks of Greenhouse Gases in Ukraine for 1990-2011 [Online] State Environmental Investment Agency of Ukraine. Available from: http://nci.org.ua/ua/oblik-vykydiv-ta-absorbtsii-parnykovykh-haziv/nats-kadastr-nir (accessed: 12/2/2014)
E3M-Lab. General Equilibrium Model for Economy – Energy – Environment: Model Manual [Online] E3M-Lab. Available from: http://18.104.22.168/e3mlab/GEM%20-%20E3%20Manual/Manual%20of%20GEM-E3.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014)
Lofgren, H. et al. (2002) A Standard Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model in GAMS [Online] International Food Policy Research Institute. Available from: http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/pubs/pubs/microcom/5/mc5.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Taylor, L., von Arnim, R. (2006) Computable General Equilibrium Models of Trade Liberalization: The Doha Debate [Online] New School for Social Research. Available from: https://www.academia.edu/2804166/Computable_General_Equilibrium_Models_of_Trade_Liberalization_The_Doha_Debate (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Bohringer, C., Rutherford, T.F. (2006) Combining Top-Down and Bottom-up in Energy Policy Analysis: A Decomposition Approach. Centre for European Economic Research. Discussion Paper No. 06-007. Available from: http://www.mpsge.org/qpdecomp.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Joseffson, A., Johnsson, J., Wene, C.-O. (1994) Community-based regional energy-environmental planning. Milano: Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
Manne, A.S., Richels, R.G. (2004) MERGE: An Integrated Assessment Model for Global Climate Change [Online]. Stanford University. Available from: http://www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE/GERAD1.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Edmonds J., Pitcher, H., Sands, R. (2004) Second Generation Model 2004: An Overview [Online] Battelle Memorial Institute. Available from: http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/data/models/SGM_2004_Overview.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Grohnheit, P.E. (1991) Economic interpretation of the EFOM model. Energy Economics. Vol. 13, Issue 2, pp. 143-152.
Loulou, R., Labriet, M. (2007) ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model. Part I: Model structure. Computational Management Science. Vol. 1, Issue 1-2, pp. 7-40. Springer [Online]. Available from: http://home.eng.iastate.edu/ (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Fortes, P. et al. (2009) Top-down vs. Bottom-up Modeling to Support Climate Policy – Comparative Analysis for the Portuguese Economy [Online] Available from: http://www.aaee.at/2009-IAEE/uploads/fullpaper_iaee09/P_422_Fortes_Patricia_31-Aug-2009,%2015:52.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Loulou, R., Goldstein, G., Noble, K. (2004) Documentation for the MARKAL Family of Models. Part 2: MARKAL-MACRO [Online] Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program. Available from: http://www.etsap.org/web/MrklDoc-II_MARKALMACRO.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Remme, U., Blesl, M. (2006) Documentation of the TIMES-MACRO mode: Draft Version [Online] Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program. Available from: http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/Docs/MACRO_Draft_010206.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Christensen, J.M. et al. (1992) UNEP greenhouse gas abatement costing studies. Analysis of abatement costing issues and preparation of a methodology to undertake national greenhouse gas abatement costing studies. Phase one report. Riso National Laboratory. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, Roskilde.
Podolets, R.Z., Diachuk, O.A. (2011) Strategic planning in the energy sector based on the “TIMES-Ukraine” model. Kiev: Institute for Economics and Forecasting.
RTI International (2008) EMPAX-CGE. Model Documentation: Interim Report [Online] RTI International. Available from: http://www.epa.gov/ttnecas1/models/empax_model_documentation.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Burniax, J.-M., Truong, T.P. (2002) GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model. GTAP Technical Paper No. 16. Available from: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/ (accessed: 12/2/2014).
Bernard A., Drouet, L., Vielle, M. (2008) GEMINI-E3, A General Equilibrium Model of International-National Interactions between Economy, Energy and the Environment, V5.3. [Online] Available from: http://gemini-e3.epfl.ch/webdav/site/gemini-e3/shared/GEMINI-E3v53.pdf (accessed: 12/2/2014).
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright (c) 2014 Oleksandr Diachuk, Roman Podolets, Maksim Chepeliev
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Economic Cybernetics. International scientific journal is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at http://ec.projects-manager.com.
Economic Cybernetics is published by Vasyl' Stus Donetsk National University.